Mired in the Muck

Sorry for the long absence. I’ve been mired in the longest losing streak of my fledgling poker career.

It started out a couple months ago with a couple of bad beats. In a row. I’ll never forget it. Dude called (yes – he called!) my all in bet fishing for an inside straight. And hits it. What happened next is best summarized in this table:

Dates used:	11/1/2011 – 2/1/2012
Total sessions:	55
Winning sessions:	13
Average win:	$141.00
Losing sessions:	41
Average loss:	$107.00
Total win/loss for period:	($2,551.00)

Grunch!

What the table does not tell you is *how* I went about losing all this money. I think it’s best summarized by a guy who’s opinion in the poker world I respect – Roger Rodd. Roger used to spend his life playing poker. These days he teaches a poker class at Commerce Casino and is a stand up comedian (go figure). Anyways – one thing that Roger always says is “It starts with bad luck, and progresses to bad luck’s twin brother – bad play.” The trick is figuring out how to recognize which twin you are dealing with.

Well – it’s taken me a while. But maybe, just maybe, I‘ve figured out how to tell. In any case, I’ve figured out what I need to do to deal with the situation:

• First – take some time off. Really take some time off. Quit reading about poker, quit thinking about poker, quit talking about poker.
• Second – if you lose *any* money in a hand, record it. Then go home and analyze it.
• Third – do not play poker until you are able to complete this sentence – “I could have played that hand better if….”.

In my case, if I *honestly* can’t answer question #3 – then I’m dealing with bad luck. But you know what? Most of the time I *can* answer the question….

Here’s a prime example from a hand a week or so ago:

Situation: I am in position heads up in a pot against a recreational fish in the BB. He has gone through a couple of 50BB buyins already in my standard 1/2 NLHE game. He has recently gotten lucky and has chipped up to about $150 or so. I have $180.

There has been a limper or two and I look down to . I raise to $8. The BB calls. We’re heads up.

Flop: This is a pretty good flop for me. BB checks. I bet $15 into a $15 pot. BB calls.

Turn: . BB checks again. I bet $40. BB now check raises all-in. Without thinking I call.

River: .

BB turns over for the turned two pair. And I take back the $30 that I have left.

So – let’s go to question #3…. “I could have played that hand better if….”

1. I could have raised more preflop I suppose. However, that folds out weak Queens (QJ, QT, etc.)that I want calling my raise.
2. The key is the turn. No recreational player is check raising all in without a hand that he or she perceives as the nuts. Period. I should recognize the CRAI as that and should have folded.

Now, a lot of people would say “That’s not true! He could be doing that with KQ!” Well, not really, I think if he has KQ in this spot, he calls my bet, because after all, “He may have AQ!”

Here’s another from a couple weeks ago:

Situation: I’m playing shorthanded at a 1/2 table with some unknowns. I am on the button and have around $250. Villain in this hand is the Small Blind who starts the hand with around $70.

I look down to . I raise to $12. SB calls. UTG (who has limped) calls.

Flop: . SB checks, UTG checks. I bet $15. SB check raises to $30. UTG folds.

At this point I am really confused. What range is he check min raising with here? Not to mention, his raise leaves him with about $25 behind. I should not even be contemplating a fold. But I do.

So let’s look at the question – “I could have played that hand better if….”

This one’s easy. CALL! He is NOT doing this exclusively with 66, 33 or 55. And 54 probably isn’t in his opening range! Sooo many hands are there – A6, small pocket pairs, etc. etc. When I stoved this hand after the fact, even with sets as part of his range, I still have 40% equity. And I fold for an extra $25?!?!?!?!

And I wonder why I was on a multi-month losing streak.

Last Words on Stealing

I wanted to share a couple hands from Friday night that demonstrate some of what I was talking about in my last couple days of posting. Both were played at Pala Casino in a 1/2 NLHE game.

Hand 1: When the Steal Works

I am in CO on a seven handed table with  . My image is neutral, but I have position. There was a couple of early position limpers. The player in MP raises to $4. I have significant history with this player, and I know he views me as a tight player. I also know that he makes this move when he has connected cards or a Broadway card that he wants to play. His raise to $4 never signifies a pair or connected Broadway. He normally plays fit or fold after the flop. HJ calls. I raise to $10. BTN and blinds fold, the early limpers fold. MP calls and HJ folds. I am heads up with my opponent.

I decide to steal the pot. There is about $30 less the drop, and against this opponent, a flop and/or turn bet can take the pot down.

Flop:

So I flop a gutter. My opponent bets $8. I really think that this bet just signifies my opponent’s attempt to steal the pot. I raise to $20. If he calls or reraises, I’ll fold.

Just like clockwork, he folds. I pull down a $33 pot.

Let’s look at the conditions that allowed me to steal:

Fit or Fold Opponent: Knowing that this player is fit or fold allows me to apply pressure. If he has a weak hand he is calling. I can apply turn pressure and he should fold. If he has a strong hand he is raising. This allows me to get away from the hand.

Position: I get the benefit of seeing everybody’s action before I need to make up my mind what to do.

Head Up Pot: By raising (in late position, by the way) preflop, I was able to get head up. This, along with position makes my post flop play easier.

Hand 2: When the Steal Doesn’t Work

In this hand I am HJ. I look down to . There have been a couple limps in front of me. I raise to $10. CO folds, BTN calls, SB folds, BB calls, limper UTG+1 calls. We are four ways to the flop.

Flop:

At this point, I am done with the hand. I will bet if no one in front of me bets, but I will fold if raised by the button. My goal now is to try to minimize any damage if anyone is slow playing an Ace.

BB (who has $27 in his stack) bets $10 and I fold.

Let’s look at why I can’t steal this hand:

Multiway Pot: We are four ways to the flop. When we think about the preflop calling ranges of the typical low stakes NL player, an Ace/rag hand is highly likely. This means that someone has probably hit that flop.

Small Stacks: BB starts the hand with around $40, puts $10 in preflop, and $10 on the flop. There is no way that I can put in a lot of money representing an Ace. He is calling. Even if he only has a pair of 8s.

Out of Position: I’m no longer the last to act in this hand. If I put money in on this flop as a bluff, BTN is still to act behind me. I would have to make my action pretty convincing, or else BTN is calling/raising and representing an Ax hand. When that happens, BB is probably putting the rest of his stack in. That means if I try to steal on the flop, I am pretty likely just throwing my money away.

I hope that you are beginning to see there are many levels of thought that need to go into your decision about bluffing. The bottom line is to know your opponents and their tendencies. Pay attention to them. Especially when you are not in a hand.

And finally – you need to remember – it’s not about the way you play and think. It’s about the way *they* play and think. It makes no difference whether you think $20 is or isn’t a lot of money. If your opponent thinks that it is, then you can play accordingly. Don’t assume that because you do things a certain way, that they will!

To Steal Or Not to Steal

So in my last post, I spent a lot of time and words explaining how to steal. By doing so, I kind of put the cart before the horse. We now know what we need to think about when trying to steal, but we haven’t really answered the question about whether we should steal or how often.

There are five things that you need at a poker game in order to steal. I’ll list them in order of importance based on my humble opinion:

1. Deep stacks: Your opponents need to have enough money that they would view losing it as painful. How much is enough? That really depends on each opponent. Some think that $10 is painful. Others laugh off a $200 loss. You need to pay attention to your opponent’s betting habits.
2. Passive opponents: Your opponents have to be willing to let you steal from them. They have to be “fit or fold” players – players who either fold to your preflop raise, or if they call, are only going to put in more money if they hit the flop. How will you know if they are fit or fold? Watch them play when you are not in a hand. If they limp, then call a preflop raise, then check and fold to a flop bet, they are fit or fold. On the other hand, do not bluff calling stations or aggressive players. Play strong hands for value against them.
3. Image: In most low stakes games, image is king. Play tight and establish a winning image. Once you do, people will be afraid to call you. On the other hand, if you have a losing or neutral image, they will not believe anything you are trying to represent. I know this makes no logical sense, but neither do most of your opponents.
4. Position: A lot of people would put this first, but in my opinion, if you are at a table with shallow stacks and aggressive players and you have a losing or neutral image, you shouldn’t even be thinking about bluffing regardless of position. On the other hand, if you are at a table with players who are bluff able, position can certainly make it easier. If you think about it, when you are in position, you are the last to act. So when you preflop raise, get called a couple ways, see a flop and everybody checks to you, you pretty much know that everyone has missed. On the other hand, if you are UTG+1, you raise, get called a couple of ways and see a flop, you might be the first on to act. Your ability to steal is now a c-bet bluff followed by a little prayer that someone behind you isn’t trying the same move.
5. Don’t Bluff in Multiway Pots: The fact is that when you are up against multiple hands, the probability that someone has hit a flop or turn go up dramatically. And the fact of the matter is that if they hit a flop or turn, they probably aren’t folding.

So let’s look at why it often doesn’t make sense to bluff in low stakes games and/or early stages of most low entry fee tournaments:

1. The dollars involved aren’t big: The reason that many casinos have low buy ins is to attract people who would normally be scared if they had to buy in for $100 or $200 dollars.  Likewise, when someone buys in to a tournament for $40, their lifestyle isn’t going to change when they lose their stack.
2. Players are calling stations: Most players are unable to read boards (other than a flush) or put their opponent on a range of hands. As a result, they may think their middle pair top kicker hand is good and are going to call any bet that you make as a bluff. It’s tough to bluff with your AK against a pair of 5s with a King kicker on a 852 board. The bottom line is they don’t know how to fold.
3. Players “Just Want to See a Flop”: A lot of bad players “just want to see a flop” and are very willing to call largish preflop raises. This invariably leads to multiway preflop pots. Then someone connects bottom pair with their J3 suited and turns two pair. They are not folding to your preflop bluff reraise. Don’t even try. Just limp and bet for value if you hit, and fold if you are reraised on a later street.

What I have discovered (the hard way) is the only way to really bluff in most low stakes cash games is to look for the following situations:

1. Bluff only against “fit or fold” players: Once again, these are the players who call a preflop raise, see a ragged flop, and check. Make a mental note of who those players are and then try to get into heads up pots with them. It doesn’t matter what your cards are. They will put you on a hand like AK, AQ, AJ with your preflop raise. They will check fold the flop if they don’t connect.
2. Bluff only when in position: If you are not in position, then you will have to make a preflop raise and a flop bet to see if you are good. Save some money by bluffing in position against fit or fold players. That way you only have to put in a preflop raise. If they bet the flop, you fold. If they check the flop, you bet and they fold.
3. If your opponent calls your turn bet and you are bluffing (not semi-bluffing) you are probably beat: If you are playing a fit or fold player, they have hit something and they are not folding. Don’t get embarrassed (and damage your image) by having to table your cards at showdown when they call your river bet.
4. Know when to fold: If you are bluffing, do not do things like calling a check raise, or, if you are out of position, calling a bet after you have checked. This is just a waste of money. Raise or fold.

The bottom line is at the lower stakes that most of us play, the proper places to bluff and steal are few and far between. Be smart when you do and you can pick up a small pot here and there. Be dumb when you do and you can lose an entire stack.

How Much Should I Raise

As I mentioned, I’ve been stuck in a losing streak for a few weeks now. It’s the kind where I go in with the best hand, and get destroyed somewhere between the flop and the river. The problem was that I was taking an aggressive betting line that resulted in a large portion of my stack being put in the middle by the time the cards turned on me. And of course this meant I was taking the big loss most of the time. This brought to mind the question – should I be raising as much as I am?

In my opinion, the best answer comes from one of the books that every NL player should eventually read – Small Stakes No Limit Hold’em by Ed Miller. Raise small when you have a low post flop expectation, raise more when you have a higher post flop expectation. Pretty simple huh?

To understand what Miller is saying, we need to remember that the basis of no-limit poker is the equity that you have with your hand. Equity comes in two forms:

• Showdown equity: This is where you win a hand at showdown. To win, you must show up with the best hand. Most players rely on this equity. They will win an occasional big pot with a monster, and then lose it all chasing draws in unprofitable situations (e.g., chasing a draw without direct odds to do so).
• Steal equity: This is where you win a hand by forcing your opponent to fold theirs. Stealing is critical to no limit success. Stealing requires a combination of tight play, position, and comfort. It’s stealing (also known as bluffing) that allows you to win with marginal hands because you don’t worry about showdown. You never get there.

So, now, to go back to the term “post flop expectation”. Here is what Miller means:

• Say you are in late position. You raise to steal (i.e., doesn’t matter what your cards are). Your opponents are the type who are either going to (1) fold to your raise, or (2) 3 bet you. When they 3 bet, you are going to fold. Your expectation of playing post flop is low.
• Now, let’s say you’re in the same position, but your opponent plays a different style. You raise to steal (once again – doesn’t matter what your cards are). This time though, your opponent folds 60% of the time, calls 30% of the time, and re-raises 10% of the time. This means that at least 30% of the time, you will be playing a hand post flop. Your post flop expectation is higher.

Now that we have definitions under our belt:

• If you have a low post flop expectation, then you can raise smaller. You need to figure out the smallest raise size that will induce a fold and then go with it. For example – if you have noticed that $8 results in your opponent folding, then your raise should be $8, not $12 or $15. This saves you money when your opponent 3 bets you and you are forced to fold.
• If you have a higher post flop expectation, then you should raise more. You need to figure out the largest raise size that one or (at the most) two opponents will call. Why? Let’s look at an example:

You are in the cutoff with . You decide to steal*. You are at a table with some players who play as many as 70% of their hands. Four of them have limped in front of you. You know that some of them are going to fold to your raise, but at least one of them is going to call. Plus, you still have the BTN and the blinds behind you left to act. So, you have a higher post flop expectation. You have noticed that when someone raises to $12 into a multiplayer pot, only one or two will fold. But when the raise is $16, all except for one player folds. So, you raise to $16. And end up in a heads up pot against one of the early position limpers who plays fit or fold poker. The flop comes out:

and the early position limper checks to you. You fire out a half pot size bet, he folds, and you scoop a $40 (remember the other limpers?) pot. EZ game.

On the other hand, if you would have raised to $10 here, you would be in a multiway pot with a garbage hand. And you can count on the fact that someone came in with a hand like T9o, QTo, T8o, etc.

One final word about post flop expectation:

• If you are in early position, your post flop expectation will generally be higher. Plan on raising more with hands that have showdown value.
• If you are in late position, you post flop expectation should be lower. Plan raising less and stealing more.

Here’s the bottom line of what we’re talking about:

• Pay attention to your table. Know player by player who is going to fold to what size bet. Have an understanding what each player’s open raise, open limp, and open calling ranges are.
• Once you have this figured out, steal more in position, and fold more out of position.
• EZ game!

* So you’re probably asking – “Why 96o? Isn’t that a terrible hand?” Yes it is. And that’s why we’re stealing with it. Hands like these are easy to fold. If you are re-raised by someone else, you can do one of two things with this hand:

• Instantly muck – Do this about 5%-10% of the time. Let the other players know that every now and then you do try to steal. That way, when you do have a hand and they re-raise from the blinds trying to re-steal, and you can come over the top. When they call, you can roll over your Aces or Kings and wind a stack.
• The rest of the time hem and haw. Count backwards from 40. When you get to zero, muck your hand. Make them think that it was a tough decision. After all, you don’t raise with garbage hands. Do you?

Working My Way Through a Losing Streak

I am stuck in a losing streak. Something happened in November. Then it continued into December. Some will call it bad play. Others will call it bad luck. I’m sure it’s a combination of the two.

It all started out with some cockiness in November. I had two months of winning. I thought I was invincible. I thought people were bluffing because I was winning. And because I couldn’t lose, I started playing a wider range of cards. Well, what happened is I started losing. I tried to put a stop to the madness, but all that happened then was I fell back on playing a scared, passive style.

Then December comes along. Back to limping. Finding myself in a bunch of tough situations. A series of small losses. Then came the bad luck. Getting in top set against a gutter straight draw. Then a middle set against a flush draw. Then a flopped flush against top with with a bigger flush draw. Then running QQ into KK, flopping a set, and then getting turned by a straight. Then finally playing like a passive pussy and watching $200 just go down the tubes without winning any hand with a pot larger than $50 in a six hour session. All within a week. Four stacks of $200 down the tubes.

I’ve been searching for a solution. Trying to figure out what I’m doing wrong. I’ve talked to people. Roger Rodd, who teaches a poker class at Commerce Casino and hosts a daily Internet Poker show, is quite adamant that I take time off until I can get the losing mentality out of my mind. Another friend of mine who lives up in the bay area concurs. The bottom line is as long as there is a fear of losing in my mind, then I shouldn’t be sitting at a table.

And as much as I want to think that I am past the losing mentality – here’s a prime example of not being over it. I’m in a free roll super turbo live tournament last night. First hand dealt to me (literally):

Hero is UTG and sees . And I muck them.

Why? Because I convince myself that someone behind me left to act is probably holding at least two overs and will end up out flopping me.

Is there any hope? LOL!

Well, yes there is. I’m going to start by going back through some of my posts in this blog. Time to study!

And, Just Because We Lose Doesn’t Mean We Didn’t Play it Right

Yesterday I outlined a hand where, even though I won, I had to get Lady Luck on my side to pull the winner out of the air. Yesterday, I had exactly the opposite experience:

Situation: I am BTN a full ring 1/2 NLHE table with 100BBs ($200). The table has one good, but nitty player, one aggro fish, and an assortment of weak passives and loose passives that makes for a good table.

I look down at . So far, UTG (short stacked with $40), MP1 (aggro fish with about $150), MP2 (unknown with about $300), and CO (bad player with about $90) have all limped. With this many limpers, I limp along. My plan is to flop a set. If I do, I will try to stack off against some of the weaker players at the table. I doubt MP1 will call any significant raise I make. MP2 might since I have no history with him. CO might as well. SB limps and BB checks. Total pot is $14 less the drop or $9.

Flop: . Gin and double gin! Not only have I flopped my set, but being on the button I get to see all the action before the hand gets to me. UTG and MP1 both check. MP2 throws $5 into the middle. CO raises to $15. My turn….

Let’s break down the action so far.

• UTG, MP1 have both checked. They caught nothing. They are folding.
• MP2 has thrown (literally tossed in the air) a $5 chip. He has something like an Ace high, or maybe a pair of twos. The action of throwing the chip in the air is a sign of weakness – the action is one of separation. MP2 is trying to separate himself from his bet. He’s not doing anything else this hand other than trying to steal a small pot.
• CO raises. Now this is interesting. The fact that he has raised into four other players is a sign that he perceives his hand as strong. Plus, he has done something that Bart Hanson (his podcasts and training videos are highly recommended) calls the “Aggressive Action Theorem”. Bart basically theorizes that anyone who raises into multiple people isn’t going to fold.

So, based on all this information, I think the only one who is going to call me at this point in the bad player in CO. Also, since I don’t think CO is going to fold his hand, slow playing would be a disaster. It’s time to get all of his chips in the middle.

Now, there is a little art to getting bad players to put all their chips in. Often the words “All In” from someone is a scary proposition. People don’t want to go broke without a made hand. But, if you bet and leave them with a little bit behind, they usually take the bait. I do a quick visual check of CO and guesstimate he has about $60 left, so I raise to $50. By betting $50, I force him to make a mistake if he calls – he will not be getting the proper odds to call with his flush draw or straight draw. He hems and haws and calls. His call leaves him with $3 behind. LOL! The “Aggressive Action Theorem” works again.

Pot is now $114.

Turn: . CO checks. I put $5 more in the pot. He calls off with his last $3. Pot is now $120.

River: . Yikes!

And yes – CO turns over for the rivered straight.

But – my moves here were *exactly* correct. Let’s look at the detail:

• I stuck to my plan: I limped 8’s to set mine. If I wouldn’t have hit the set, I would have folded per plan and lost a whopping $2.
• When I set up, I forced the action. I didn’t slow play and let the villain catch up.
• I forced the villain to make a mistake. He is open ended on the flop, which means he has about 33% equity. He needs about 3 to 1 on his bet to make this a profitable call. There is $14 in the pot, plus his $15, plus my $50 or $79. He needs to call $35 to win $79, or about 2.25 to 1.
• Lady Luck decided to give him a visit.

This is just one of those situations where we once again prove that poker is a game and luck is involved.

Note: The worst part of this hand was that my image ended up suffering the rest of the night. I ended up packing up and leaving after two hours with a small loss when it became evident that nothing I did was going to go unchallenged by players at the table.

And Finally….

The errors in this hand are a little more subtle:

Hand #3:

Situation: Playing full ring 1/2. I am UTG with $230 or so. The villain in this hand is an unknown sitting to my left (puts him in HJ). He has about $120.

I look down to and decide to go ahead and play it. I limp, thinking if anyone has anything strong behind me and raise, I’ll just muck the hand. Four others limp in and the blinds complete. We’re going to the flop 6 handed. Pot is $7.

The flop is . Excellent! The blinds check to me. Problem #1 is because the preflop action wasn’t raised, I can’t bet too much without folding everyone out of the hand. I bet $10. folds to HJ who calls. BTN calls. Pot is now $37.

Turn is . I bet $25. HJ calls. Pot is $87.

River is . I bet $50. HJ now shoves for the rest of his stack ($77). What do we do and why?

So – let’s look at this hand. This is the type of stuff that gets me into all kinds of trouble.

First off – opening J8 in early position is really, really marginal. I need an almost perfect flop to continue pushing the action. There is one other thing that I failed to look at as well. I have about double the chip stack of my opponents. If I’m not careful here, I can set myself up for a big loss (remember the discussion of Reverse Implied Odds?).

Next – let’s look at the action in this hand:

• Preflop: Limped
• Flop: I bet, villain calls.
• Turn: I bet, villain calls.
• River: I bet, villain jams.

This is a pretty strong line. We need to start thinking what hands would take this betting line:

• Busted draw: I doubt this is a busted flush draw, because that would have folded to my flop bet since the flush draw doesn’t show up until the turn. It *is* possible that this is a busted straight draw (KT, or T9).  But, I bet large enough though that the draws should have been priced out. Plus, most people in the low stakes are not sophisticated enough to pull off a river bluff for their entire stack. Bottom line is most people are afraid of losing.
• Top pair (Queen): Highly unlikely for a couple of reasons – there’s a paired board and I’ve been betting into the villain. He can’t have QQ, AQ or KQ or he (most likely) would have raised preflop. So, if he has a naked Queen, there is just no way that he would have called flop and called turn.
• Jack: Even though three Jacks can be accounted for, this is the only thing that is remaining that could explain this betting pattern. And, since my kicker is so low, there is over half of the deck that outkicks me.
• So, I should be folding here, but after sticking in $87, it’s another $27 to call. I’ve committed myself with a marginal hand in this spot. I call.

See what I mean about why you shouldn’t be playing marginal hands out of position? Do as I say! Not as I do!

By the way, the villain turned over a for the flopped full house.